Post by fastwalker on Apr 14, 2006 13:24:47 GMT -5
I have over the course of being involved with CMKX, posted many things.as evidence by a collective count over over 20k. I look at that as simply a guide to one’s involvement with CMKX for good or bad and nothing more.
Because of those 20k posts, they are all, for the most part realistically Pro CMKX. Some I have written, replicated or simply cut, carried and pasted to share with others. But at no time did I ever try to intentionally or seriously influence others. I sought to simply offer or present information to be considered as part of, or relevant to a “given” feeding frenzy that had griped the boards.
I have discovered that many could care less about reality based information. That in fact some even became offended and suggested that since they were adults, they were very capable of understanding the situation, they didn’t need anyone to point out the obvious!
Anyway, going over the many posts from various posters regarding the payout, buy out timeline, whatever, I noticed that there is a definite and very blatant pattern relevant to the usage by some posters, to instill a credibility factor into their postings, which a reasonable person would otherwise assign to BS.
This ploy is being accomplished by usage of key buzz words that are shown to be consistent with an ability to subtly influence the thinking of a targeted audience..
But first, I would address the notion, that some use which states that we have way to many things happening to be simply of a “coincidental” nature, that the timing and appearance of these events support a payout that in fact… THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY THINGS to be simply ignored.
The problems with that statement, especially from a reasonable person perspective, those who adhere to that notion, do not offer any supporting data that links the event directly to CMKX.
I guess facts are messy things and have a tendency to thrown sand onto a well oiled spin.
You know what? In Texas, we have a saying… “Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.”
It would appear that many on the boards adhere to that notion and see any attempts by others to explain things in a realistic term, as simply bashers, who must subsequently must be attacked for bringing negativity to the fantasy party.
Previously I touched on the term Coincidental. I would expand on that term to the next level which is coincidental correlation.
In simple terms, "coincidental correlation" or "false cause", is a logical fallacy which assumes or asserts that if one event happens after another, then the first must be the cause of the second.
It is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence is integral to causality — it is true that a cause always happens before its effect.
The fallacy of that thinking lies in coming to a conclusion based only on the order of events, which is not an accurate indicator. That is to say, it is not always true that the first event caused the second event.
This line of reasoning is the basis for many superstitious beliefs and magical thinking, connecting two things that have no actual or logical connection. For example, if a person sees a coin on the ground and picks it up, and later receives good news, that person may become convinced that finding the coin resulted in the good news, even though it was a mere coincidence.
One observation about it is that the fallacy ignores the possibility that the correlation is coincidence.
We can pick an example where the correlation is as statistically "robust" as we please, but we still cannot assume one factor causes the other, which is why this logical fallacy is repeated because it and those who use such obsevations, always ignore the possibility that a third factor may be the cause, which is the presence or absence of a known mechanism that may in fact explain how one event causes the other. Of course, the absence of a known mechanism doesn't preclude the possibility of an unknown mechanism.
For one event to be the cause of another it must happen first. Some cases the precipitating event may happen so quickly before the result, or may overlap the result in time, so they are said to occur simultaneously. However, the precipitating event can't happen after the result. The statement "correlation does not imply causation" notes that it is dangerous to deduce causation from a statistical correlation.
If you only have A and B, a correlation between them does not let you infer A causes B, or vice versa, much less 'deduce' the connection. But if there was a common cause, and you had that data as well, then often you can establish what the correct structure is. Likewise (and perhaps more usefully) if you have a common effect of two independent causes.
But while often ignored, the advice is also overstated, as if to say there is no way to infer causal structure from statistical data . We expect the correlation to point us towards the real causal structure. Again, the tendency is to conclude robust correlations imply some sort of causation, whether common cause or something more complicated involving multiple factors.
An entertaining demonstration of this fallacy once
appeared in an episode of The Simpsons (Season 7, "Much Apu About Nothing"). The city had just spent millions of dollars creating a highly sophisticated "Bear Patrol" in response to the sighting of a single bear the week before.
Homer: Not a bear in sight. The "Bear Patrol" is working like a charm!
Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: [uncomprehendingly] Thanks, honey.
Lisa: By your logic, I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Hmm. How does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work; it's just a stupid rock!
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?
Homer: (pause) Lisa, I want to buy your rock.
Another example is the Witch hunting scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
Sir Bedevere: Tell me, what do you do with witches?
Mr. Newt: Burn them!
Sir Bedevere: And what do you burn apart from witches?
Peasant #1: More witches! [Peasant gets slapped]
Peasant #2: Wood!
Sir Bedevere: So, why do witches burn?
Peasant #3: .......... 'Cause they're made of... wood?
Sir Bedevere: Good! So how do we tell whether she is made of wood?
Peasant #1: Build a bridge out of her!
Sir Bedevere: Ahh, but can you not also make bridges out of stone?
Peasant #1: Oh ya.
Sir Bedevere: Tell me, Does wood sink in water?
Peasant #1: No, no, it floats. Throw her into the pond!
Sir Bedevere: No, no. What also floats in water?
Peasants yell various answers: (Bread!) (Apples!) (Very small rocks!) (Cider!) (Gravy!) (Cherries!) (Mud!) (Churches!) (Lead! Lead!)
King Arthur: A duck!
Sir Bedevere: Exactly! So, logically.....
Peasant: If she weighs the same as a duck, she's made of wood.
Sir Bedevere: And therefore?
Peasant: A Witch!
The point being…settle down and review the facts, asess the known and if you must extrapolate, do so with the clarity of vision that precludes either your strectching or others strecting the reality of a given situation / conditon, by palying on your imigination…… if it sounds to good to be true, consider that maybe it is.
By the way, to support this theory that some are working over time to gain your trust. Consider this, there seems to be an abundance of Buzz words floating around the boards. In my experience the usage of buzz words has a very specific purpose and that is to subtly influence others to a specific agenda, for purposes that are not their own. While not complete, the small list indicates the type of buzz words being used.
Some words in a stand alone format, but mostly they are used in a support placement to convey intent.
Astonished: amazed: filled with the emotional impact of overwhelming surprise or shock.
Valuation: Putting a value on a security in relation to other securities.
Assets: Fixed assets include land, machines and buildings; current assets consist of cash, money owed, stock, investments and work in progress; intangible assets are goodwill, trade marks, patents, etc; liquid assets are funds kept in cash or in a form that can be quickly and easily turned into cash.
Stealth: There are two kinds of stealth that are commonly used in a campaign, passive and active. Both are seen as a means / method used in an attempt to gain unauthorized access, introduce unauthorized materials, or remove and or gain a strategic position over an adversary, basically both attempt to conceal something or of importance in order to gain an advantage.
Believer: one or more supporter(s) who accepts something as true, which can be taken to extreme as a……
True believer syndrome: The true-believer syndrome is a term coined by the reformed psychic fraud M. Lamar Keene to refer to an irrational belief in the paranormal. This notion has been extended to include those involved in other activities where rationale, logic and facts are substituted for blind faith that all is or will be right in the final analysis.
A form of self-deception caused by wishful thinking in which a believer continues to accept Unsupported explanations for phenomena or events, or denies the relevance of scientific findings and or facts, even after the believer has been confronted with abundant evidence that the phenomena or events is without merit as to any validity.
I will add one more buzz word that I feel is appropriate for our communities. That would be Patience.
You assume you have patience because you believe that you have the ability and willingness to wait a long time or to carry out a task that takes a long time, especially one that is by itself not heavy, but boring.
But each time you grasp at a positive, yet unsubstantiated post, and forget yourself and allow your emotions to control your thoughts, patience goes out the door.
True patience means not easily getting angry or not showing anger in situations of human communication where the other person is thought or displays a tendency of unreasonable behavior. While patience is commonly referred to as a virtue, it is not a traditional theological or cardinal virtue. It is simply the capacity of enduring hardship and or inconvenience, emphasizes calmness, self-control, and the willingness or ability to tolerate delay.
Its opposite is weakness. Let your sense of humor give you balance, perspective, poise and patience. Patience, together with Peace and Love, forms the Trinity of Compassion. "In your patience possess ye your souls." "Count it all joy when ye fall into diverse temptations, knowing this, that the trying of your faith works patience."
Wait for the official word is still the best approach.
Fw
Because of those 20k posts, they are all, for the most part realistically Pro CMKX. Some I have written, replicated or simply cut, carried and pasted to share with others. But at no time did I ever try to intentionally or seriously influence others. I sought to simply offer or present information to be considered as part of, or relevant to a “given” feeding frenzy that had griped the boards.
I have discovered that many could care less about reality based information. That in fact some even became offended and suggested that since they were adults, they were very capable of understanding the situation, they didn’t need anyone to point out the obvious!
Anyway, going over the many posts from various posters regarding the payout, buy out timeline, whatever, I noticed that there is a definite and very blatant pattern relevant to the usage by some posters, to instill a credibility factor into their postings, which a reasonable person would otherwise assign to BS.
This ploy is being accomplished by usage of key buzz words that are shown to be consistent with an ability to subtly influence the thinking of a targeted audience..
But first, I would address the notion, that some use which states that we have way to many things happening to be simply of a “coincidental” nature, that the timing and appearance of these events support a payout that in fact… THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY THINGS to be simply ignored.
The problems with that statement, especially from a reasonable person perspective, those who adhere to that notion, do not offer any supporting data that links the event directly to CMKX.
I guess facts are messy things and have a tendency to thrown sand onto a well oiled spin.
You know what? In Texas, we have a saying… “Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.”
It would appear that many on the boards adhere to that notion and see any attempts by others to explain things in a realistic term, as simply bashers, who must subsequently must be attacked for bringing negativity to the fantasy party.
Previously I touched on the term Coincidental. I would expand on that term to the next level which is coincidental correlation.
In simple terms, "coincidental correlation" or "false cause", is a logical fallacy which assumes or asserts that if one event happens after another, then the first must be the cause of the second.
It is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence is integral to causality — it is true that a cause always happens before its effect.
The fallacy of that thinking lies in coming to a conclusion based only on the order of events, which is not an accurate indicator. That is to say, it is not always true that the first event caused the second event.
This line of reasoning is the basis for many superstitious beliefs and magical thinking, connecting two things that have no actual or logical connection. For example, if a person sees a coin on the ground and picks it up, and later receives good news, that person may become convinced that finding the coin resulted in the good news, even though it was a mere coincidence.
One observation about it is that the fallacy ignores the possibility that the correlation is coincidence.
We can pick an example where the correlation is as statistically "robust" as we please, but we still cannot assume one factor causes the other, which is why this logical fallacy is repeated because it and those who use such obsevations, always ignore the possibility that a third factor may be the cause, which is the presence or absence of a known mechanism that may in fact explain how one event causes the other. Of course, the absence of a known mechanism doesn't preclude the possibility of an unknown mechanism.
For one event to be the cause of another it must happen first. Some cases the precipitating event may happen so quickly before the result, or may overlap the result in time, so they are said to occur simultaneously. However, the precipitating event can't happen after the result. The statement "correlation does not imply causation" notes that it is dangerous to deduce causation from a statistical correlation.
If you only have A and B, a correlation between them does not let you infer A causes B, or vice versa, much less 'deduce' the connection. But if there was a common cause, and you had that data as well, then often you can establish what the correct structure is. Likewise (and perhaps more usefully) if you have a common effect of two independent causes.
But while often ignored, the advice is also overstated, as if to say there is no way to infer causal structure from statistical data . We expect the correlation to point us towards the real causal structure. Again, the tendency is to conclude robust correlations imply some sort of causation, whether common cause or something more complicated involving multiple factors.
An entertaining demonstration of this fallacy once
appeared in an episode of The Simpsons (Season 7, "Much Apu About Nothing"). The city had just spent millions of dollars creating a highly sophisticated "Bear Patrol" in response to the sighting of a single bear the week before.
Homer: Not a bear in sight. The "Bear Patrol" is working like a charm!
Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: [uncomprehendingly] Thanks, honey.
Lisa: By your logic, I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Hmm. How does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work; it's just a stupid rock!
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?
Homer: (pause) Lisa, I want to buy your rock.
Another example is the Witch hunting scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
Sir Bedevere: Tell me, what do you do with witches?
Mr. Newt: Burn them!
Sir Bedevere: And what do you burn apart from witches?
Peasant #1: More witches! [Peasant gets slapped]
Peasant #2: Wood!
Sir Bedevere: So, why do witches burn?
Peasant #3: .......... 'Cause they're made of... wood?
Sir Bedevere: Good! So how do we tell whether she is made of wood?
Peasant #1: Build a bridge out of her!
Sir Bedevere: Ahh, but can you not also make bridges out of stone?
Peasant #1: Oh ya.
Sir Bedevere: Tell me, Does wood sink in water?
Peasant #1: No, no, it floats. Throw her into the pond!
Sir Bedevere: No, no. What also floats in water?
Peasants yell various answers: (Bread!) (Apples!) (Very small rocks!) (Cider!) (Gravy!) (Cherries!) (Mud!) (Churches!) (Lead! Lead!)
King Arthur: A duck!
Sir Bedevere: Exactly! So, logically.....
Peasant: If she weighs the same as a duck, she's made of wood.
Sir Bedevere: And therefore?
Peasant: A Witch!
The point being…settle down and review the facts, asess the known and if you must extrapolate, do so with the clarity of vision that precludes either your strectching or others strecting the reality of a given situation / conditon, by palying on your imigination…… if it sounds to good to be true, consider that maybe it is.
By the way, to support this theory that some are working over time to gain your trust. Consider this, there seems to be an abundance of Buzz words floating around the boards. In my experience the usage of buzz words has a very specific purpose and that is to subtly influence others to a specific agenda, for purposes that are not their own. While not complete, the small list indicates the type of buzz words being used.
Some words in a stand alone format, but mostly they are used in a support placement to convey intent.
Astonished: amazed: filled with the emotional impact of overwhelming surprise or shock.
Valuation: Putting a value on a security in relation to other securities.
Assets: Fixed assets include land, machines and buildings; current assets consist of cash, money owed, stock, investments and work in progress; intangible assets are goodwill, trade marks, patents, etc; liquid assets are funds kept in cash or in a form that can be quickly and easily turned into cash.
Stealth: There are two kinds of stealth that are commonly used in a campaign, passive and active. Both are seen as a means / method used in an attempt to gain unauthorized access, introduce unauthorized materials, or remove and or gain a strategic position over an adversary, basically both attempt to conceal something or of importance in order to gain an advantage.
Believer: one or more supporter(s) who accepts something as true, which can be taken to extreme as a……
True believer syndrome: The true-believer syndrome is a term coined by the reformed psychic fraud M. Lamar Keene to refer to an irrational belief in the paranormal. This notion has been extended to include those involved in other activities where rationale, logic and facts are substituted for blind faith that all is or will be right in the final analysis.
A form of self-deception caused by wishful thinking in which a believer continues to accept Unsupported explanations for phenomena or events, or denies the relevance of scientific findings and or facts, even after the believer has been confronted with abundant evidence that the phenomena or events is without merit as to any validity.
I will add one more buzz word that I feel is appropriate for our communities. That would be Patience.
You assume you have patience because you believe that you have the ability and willingness to wait a long time or to carry out a task that takes a long time, especially one that is by itself not heavy, but boring.
But each time you grasp at a positive, yet unsubstantiated post, and forget yourself and allow your emotions to control your thoughts, patience goes out the door.
True patience means not easily getting angry or not showing anger in situations of human communication where the other person is thought or displays a tendency of unreasonable behavior. While patience is commonly referred to as a virtue, it is not a traditional theological or cardinal virtue. It is simply the capacity of enduring hardship and or inconvenience, emphasizes calmness, self-control, and the willingness or ability to tolerate delay.
Its opposite is weakness. Let your sense of humor give you balance, perspective, poise and patience. Patience, together with Peace and Love, forms the Trinity of Compassion. "In your patience possess ye your souls." "Count it all joy when ye fall into diverse temptations, knowing this, that the trying of your faith works patience."
Wait for the official word is still the best approach.
Fw
Owner
;D 
Gangus
That will make him happy.
